Olivia Rodrigo is doing everything right, so why isn't it working? | Chart Roundup 06.03.26
plus Drake's dominance continues as the race for Song of the Summer heats up
Welcome to Track Ten - You’re reading the Chart Roundup where I count down the week’s biggest songs, take a look at what’s trending up in the weeks ahead, and let you in on the story behind the #1s. On Mondays, I write about the impact of the stars and moments from pop music’s past and present, including in my newest themed collection, Resurrection, about pop’s greatest comebacks.
A lot has been happening on the charts while I was out of the country last week visiting Stockholm (including the fabulous ABBA museum!!) I may just have a post on Sweden’s influence on American pop music in the works…
Back stateside, Drake is spending his second week dominating the Hot 100 with tracks from his three new albums, but primarily ICEMAN. Honestly, after the Kendrick feud I didn’t really think he had it in him… And with that, the race for Song of the Summer is officially on!
what the charts had to tell us about the biggest songs of the week:
The Chart Consensus: “Janice STFU” by Drake
“Janice” spends a second week at #1, only the third new track this year to achieve more than one week. As I've written before, multiple weeks on top is a much better measure of a real “hit” these days than single week #1s, and this is actually Drake’s first time achieving it since 2018. Beyond “Janice STFU,” Drake maintains four songs in the Hot 100 Top 10, all from ICEMAN. I’ll be curious to see if the tentpole album remains the hit generator; in the second tracking week for Spotify, the few hits from MAID OF HONOR and HABIBTI fell out of the Top 50 while 13 ICEMAN tracks stayed in the tier.
The Chart Subplot: “The Cure” by Olivia Rodrigo
Olivia is doing what I asked artists to do earlier this year with a dedicated singles roll out that feels thoughtful and interesting while also showing the public clearly what the vision for the album is. Chart-wise, it’s a mixed bag though. On the one hand, “The Cure” debuted at #5 on the Hot 100, probably not what Olivia hoped for after she’s had four singles reach #1. On the other hand, she still has an actual album launch week to drive listeners back to both of these, plus potentially a new more pop-friendly single to launch with the album. Billboard’s continued fight with Youtube is taking away a major tool from artists to push post-album singles though, as music video streams on the site no longer count towards the charts.
Songs to Watch:
Olivia Dean’s “So Easy (To Fall In Love)” finally leapfrogs “Man I Need,” though it’s at #7 this week compared to its #5 peak. Is this her chance for a #1?
Stella Lefty’s “Boston” hits a new high of #20 on the Hot 100. This song is sneaking its way up the charts and is a contender for song of the summer if radio play picks up.
The Michael Jackson renaissance continues, with “Chicago” hitting the Hot 100 for the first time this week at #30 and #12 on Spotify
new music favorites from me + a guest:
My Most Streamed: “the boy is mine” by Ariana Grande
Tbh, I listened to less music than usual while traveling, but I was doing a bit of revisiting Ari’s previous work in the lead up to new single “hate that I made you love me.” With a little distance, I can now confidently say that Eternal Sunshine is my favorite album of hers, and a lot of that is due to its depth of great songs. While I wouldn’t say that “the boy is mine” is my favorite track on the album, its production is so beautifully smooth - that slow down heading into the chorus is everything.
In Case You Missed It:
Speaking of Ari, I wrote about her this week in the lead up to her new single and album, using her as a case study for what a pop star’s career often looks like after an imperial phase: still relevant, but not the pinnacle of culture.
Best New Track: “ESTILO SUDAKA” by Trueno
I was turned onto this one by Billboard’s Greatest Pop Stars Podcast, where they covered both the chart contenders for song of the summer and their own personal favorites. The production here is so pop-y, bass-y, and dance-y in a way that contemporary rap often isn’t. I love the way it feels retro and current at the same time, and could certainly imagine playing it at any number of summer-y venues.
Guest Verse (feat. Kevin Alexander): “We’re Gonna Be Okay” by Dari Bay
Kevin is the voice behind On Repeat Records here on Substack, but to call it a newsletter or blog would fail to capture the community he has built here! His weekly What Are You Listening To? posts regularly generate dozens (if not hundreds) of comments trading great recommendations. Here’s his own recommendation, just for Track Ten readers:
The weather is finally turning here, and that means it’s road trip season. With its chunky chords and fuzzy riffs, this track seems purpose built for the wide open spaces here in the central time zone, and I can’t get enough of it.
Listen to “We’re Gonna Be Okay” on Bandcamp
Using my proprietary Track Ten formula (check out this post for the full methodology if you’re interested!), I’m tracking the race for Song of the Summer. This is the first week, and as a reminder, songs that have been in the Hot 100 Top 10 since before May 1st or the Top 20 since before April 1st are disqualified. Let’s take a look at where things stand after week #1:
Drake is taking a strong lead with six of the ten slots this week, though Olivia Rodrigo is holding her own with two entries. For comparison to the Hot 100, five songs are disqualified here including tracks by Ella Langley, Bruno Mars, and Olivia Dean which have been long-running hits.
the full list of #1 hits of the last week:
Billboard Hot 100 #1: “Janice STFU” by Drake
2nd week at #1
Billboard 200 #1 Album: ICEMAN by Drake
2nd week at #1
Billboard Global 200 #1: “Janice STFU” by Drake
2nd week at #1
Spotify Weekly US #1: “Janice STFU” by Drake
2nd week at #1
Youtube Weekly US #1: “Choosin’ Texas” by Ella Langley
8th week at #1
Apple Music US Daily #1: “Janice STFU” by Drake
r/Popheads Chart: “The Cure” by Olivia Rodrigo
This was great. Thank you for having me!